European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Kleewin 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ninja Penguinsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Klee
No games played over 6 months.
Ninja Penguins
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 4 games
Alchemist
Lowskill · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Copy · 2 games
Silencer
MiLAN · 2 games
Weaveroften banned
MiLAN · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
285 picks · 411 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 402 bans
Grimstroke
262 picks · 435 bans
Tusk
229 picks · 207 bans
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 592 bans
Lion
210 picks · 185 bans
Pangolier
210 picks · 301 bans
Vengeful Spirit
207 picks · 90 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Team Klee
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Team Klee
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:31
Team Klee 69%Ninja Penguins 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Klee — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 35:54.
Game 2prediction missed15:40
Team Klee 69%Ninja Penguins 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Klee — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 34:27.
Game 3prediction missed9:36
Team Klee 69%Ninja Penguins 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Klee — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 26:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Klee · 69%
Series resultTeam Klee 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3