?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monteloss 0:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KZ TEAMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Monte

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
0%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
EcNart · 3 games
33%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
33%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
EcNart · 3 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 2 games
100%

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 18 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
59%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 16 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 16 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
SsaSpartan · 14 games
50%
Oracle
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 13 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 12 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
285 picks · 409 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
270 picks · 402 bans
48%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 435 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
227 picks · 207 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 590 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
210 picks · 185 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
210 picks · 301 bans
55%
Magnus
Magnus
206 picks · 308 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:37
Monte 33%KZ TEAM 67%
The model gave 67% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 43:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingCrystallize
51% · 250 games56% · 107 games
Naga SirenOtaker
Naga Siren
Huskar
HuskarMoonlight
59% · 52 games52% · 222 games
Ember SpiritSupream^
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsInfernal
44% · 128 games46% · 43 games
RazorSkyLark
Razor
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
48% · 127 games42% · 156 games
PhoenixSsaSpartan
Phoenix
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritEcNart
53% · 123 games52% · 152 games
TuskAstral
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct23:38
Monte 33%KZ TEAM 67%
The model gave 67% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 23:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCrystallize
57% · 46 games61% · 40 games
ClinkzOtaker
Clinkz
Windranger
WindrangerMoonlight
50% · 70 games49% · 15 games
Arc WardenSupream^
Arc Warden
Beastmaster
BeastmasterInfernal
53% · 223 games40% · 122 games
Death ProphetSkyLark
Death Prophet
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
56% · 113 games42% · 171 game
PhoenixSsaSpartan
Phoenix
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritEcNart
54% · 79 games49% · 183 games
TuskAstral
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 82%
Series resultKZ TEAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2