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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Invadersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 10 games
60%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
KJ · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
Scofield · 6 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemist
K1 · 5 games
40%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 5 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
K1 · 4 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 4 games
25%

Invaders

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Kiri · 5 games
60%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mnz · 3 games
100%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Yadomi · 3 games
33%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Yadomi · 2 games
100%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
555k · 2 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Yadomi · 2 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
sl4d1n- · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
284 picks · 409 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
268 picks · 401 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
259 picks · 435 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
227 picks · 207 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 586 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
208 picks · 184 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
208 picks · 298 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
206 picks · 305 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% Invaders
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:16
Heroic 59%Invaders 41%
The model gave 59% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 34:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordK1
53% · 75 games46% · 95 games
UrsaMnz
Ursa
Mars
MarsDavai
50% · 134 games54% · 230 games
Primal BeastChris Luck
Primal Beast
Pangolier
Pangolier4nalog
50% · 338 games44% · 199 games
PhoenixSmAsH
Phoenix
Silencer
SilencerKJ
48% · 202 games57% · 227 games
Clockwerksl4d1n-
Clockwerk
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritScofield
51% · 154 games47% · 152 games
LionYadomi
Lion
Game 2prediction correct33:28
Heroic 58%Invaders 42%
The model gave 58% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 50:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistK1
58% · 121 game49% · 108 games
SvenMnz
Sven
Doom
DoomDavai
50% · 271 game51% · 152 games
MarsChris Luck
Mars
Pangolier
Pangolier4nalog
54% · 385 games46% · 205 games
PhoenixSmAsH
Phoenix
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritKJ
48% · 156 games47% · 485 games
RubickYadomi
Rubick
Lion
LionScofield
42% · 153 games56% · 136 games
Earthshakersl4d1n-
Earthshaker
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 69%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2