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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Entityloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Secretwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Entity

No games played over 6 months.

Team Secret

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 18 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 18 games
67%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 15 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Armel · 13 games
31%
Batrider
Batridersignature
yamich · 12 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 11 games
55%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Fbz · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
282 picks · 408 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
268 picks · 401 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
259 picks · 435 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
226 picks · 207 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
221 picks · 586 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
207 picks · 184 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
206 picks · 304 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
206 picks · 297 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Team Secret
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total52% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:29
Entity 52%Team Secret 48%
The model gave 52% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Secret in 58:07.
Game 2prediction missed25:29
Entity 52%Team Secret 48%
The model gave 52% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Secret in 50:11.
Game 3prediction missed27:17
Entity 52%Team Secret 48%
The model gave 52% on Entity — the game was taken by Team Secret in 45:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 52%
Series resultTeam Secret 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3