DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KZ TEAMloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
KZ TEAM
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 16 games
Rubick
Pablo · 16 games
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 15 games
Vengeful Spirit
SsaSpartan · 14 games
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 13 games
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
279 picks · 405 bans
Phoenix
268 picks · 398 bans
Grimstroke
259 picks · 435 bans
Tusk
226 picks · 207 bans
Nature's Prophet
221 picks · 585 bans
Lion
207 picks · 183 bans
Pangolier
204 picks · 295 bans
Dark Willow
203 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:19
Entity 62%KZ TEAM 38%
The model gave 62% on Entity — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 32:38.
Game 2prediction missed31:6
Entity 62%KZ TEAM 38%
The model gave 62% on Entity — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 28:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 62%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2