European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team NextUploss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
One Movewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team NextUp
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 3 games
Juggernaut
7jesu · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Petushara · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Petushara · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
jesv · 2 games
Lifestealeroften banned
7jesu · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
jesv · 2 games
One Move
Disruptor
Xakoda · 10 games
Legion Commandersignature
AfterLife · 9 games
Rubick
Panto · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Gilgir · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 8 games
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
AfterLife · 7 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Munkushi~ · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
276 picks · 405 bans
Phoenix
268 picks · 398 bans
Grimstroke
259 picks · 435 bans
Tusk
226 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
221 picks · 583 bans
Lion
207 picks · 183 bans
Pangolier
204 picks · 295 bans
Dark Willow
203 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% Team NextUp
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Team NextUp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:34
Team NextUp 54%One Move 46%
The model gave 54% on Team NextUp — the game was taken by One Move in 48:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling7jesu
Storm SpiritSSS
Void SpiritMirage
Centaur Warrunnerchempik
MarsPetushara
Hoodwinkqueezy
Batriderforcemajor
Ancient ApparitionXakoda
Winter Wyvernjesv
Game 2prediction correct37:22
Team NextUp 55%One Move 45%
The model gave 55% on Team NextUp — the game was taken by Team NextUp in 31:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckMirage
Marschempik
Juggernaut7jesu
Primal BeastSSS
Centaur WarrunnerPetushara
Vengeful SpiritXakoda
Batriderforcemajor
Hoodwinkqueezy
Crystal Maidenjesv
Game 3prediction missed24:40
Team NextUp 53%One Move 47%
The model gave 53% on Team NextUp — the game was taken by One Move in 41:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer7jesu
Keeper of the LightSSS
Storm SpiritMirage
Magnuschempik
VisagePetushara
Centaur WarrunnerXakoda
Tinyforcemajor
Rubickqueezy
Crystal Maidenjesv
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam NextUp · 58%
Series resultOne Move 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3