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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Winter Bearloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 17 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 14 games
71%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
86%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
85%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 13 games
54%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 13 games
100%
Lina
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 11 games
73%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 11 games
73%

Winter Bear

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Stoic · 5 games
40%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Nagato · 4 games
75%
Tiny
Tiny
Jeezy · 4 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Stoic · 4 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Stoic · 3 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 3 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Nagato · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
276 picks · 405 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
266 picks · 398 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
259 picks · 435 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
226 picks · 206 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
221 picks · 580 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
206 picks · 183 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
204 picks · 294 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
203 picks · 100 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 63%
Hero pool strength62% Team Falcons
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total92% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:32
Team Falcons 79%Winter Bear 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 1:06:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
59% · 16 games52% · 112 games
Vengeful SpiritStoic
Vengeful Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
48% · 71 game45% · 127 games
LionJeezy
Lion
Mars
MarsATF
63% · 55 games
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
44% · 31 game
Techies
TechiesCr1t-
45% · 66 games
Game 2prediction correct35:11
Team Falcons 80%Winter Bear 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
51% · 139 games47% · 435 games
RubickJeezy
Rubick
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
63% · 33 games48% · 165 games
PhoenixStoic
Phoenix
Mars
MarsATF
46% · 96 games
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritSneyking
54% · 72 games
Tiny
TinyCr1t-
48% · 260 games
Game 3prediction correct34:25
Team Falcons 78%Winter Bear 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 41:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSkiter
55% · 34 games47% · 158 games
PhoenixJeezy
Phoenix
Doom
DoomATF
50% · 84 games52% · 94 games
Vengeful SpiritStoic
Vengeful Spirit
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
54% · 46 games
Tiny
TinyCr1t-
37% · 65 games
Lich
LichSneyking
58% · 23 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 92%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3