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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Darlengwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Hishge · 7 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
29%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ken · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
80%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
PlayHard · 4 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
JG · 4 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
FortuneSoul · 3 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 3 games
33%

Darleng

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
276 picks · 402 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
265 picks · 397 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
258 picks · 435 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
224 picks · 206 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
221 picks · 573 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
204 picks · 183 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
202 picks · 100 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
202 picks · 290 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 70%
Hero pool strength51% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Darleng
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:28
Neon Esports 43%Darleng 57%
The model gave 57% on Darleng — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 45:02.
Game 2prediction correct36:15
Neon Esports 43%Darleng 57%
The model gave 57% on Darleng — the game was taken by Darleng in 34:37.
Game 3prediction correct27:13
Neon Esports 43%Darleng 57%
The model gave 57% on Darleng — the game was taken by Darleng in 26:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteDarleng · 57%
Series resultDarleng 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3