DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 6 games
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 6 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Sacred · 5 games
Pugnaoften banned
Mjz · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Sacred · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
xNova · 5 games
Lion
BoBoKa · 4 games
Heroic
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 7 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
KJ · 7 games
Lion
Scofield · 5 games
Tiny
Scofield · 5 games
Alchemist
K1 · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
K1 · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
275 picks · 399 bans
Phoenix
263 picks · 396 bans
Grimstroke
258 picks · 434 bans
Tusk
224 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
220 picks · 570 bans
Lion
203 picks · 182 bans
Dark Willow
202 picks · 100 bans
Pangolier
202 picks · 289 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:4
BOOM Esports 42%Heroic 58%
The model gave 58% on Heroic — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 28:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingPakazs
WeaverK1
TidehunterILICH-
Queen of Pain4nalog
Vengeful SpiritPanda
DoomScofield
60% · 17 games
Winter WyvernKJ
58% · 90 games
Dark SeerDavai
Game 2prediction missed36:27
BOOM Esports 46%Heroic 54%
The model gave 54% on Heroic — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 52:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerPakazs
AlchemistK1
TidehunterILICH-
Vengeful SpiritDavai
Nature's ProphetPanda
Zeus4nalog
52% · 182 games
TinyScofield
46% · 129 games
PhoenixKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 56%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2