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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Invaderswin 2:0
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Invaders

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Kiri · 5 games
60%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 3 games
33%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Yadomi · 3 games
33%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
555k · 2 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Chris Luck · 2 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
100%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
sl4d1n- · 2 games
100%

Thunder Awaken

Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Mjz · 7 games
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
ILICH- · 6 games
67%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 6 games
67%
Oracle
Oracle
Mjz · 5 games
100%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Smiling Knight · 4 games
25%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
25%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
275 picks · 399 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
263 picks · 396 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
258 picks · 434 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
224 picks · 206 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
220 picks · 570 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
203 picks · 182 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
202 picks · 100 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
202 picks · 289 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:26
Invaders 39%Thunder Awaken 61%
The model gave 61% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Invaders in 54:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerChris Luck
46% · 21 game58% · 65 games
Monkey KingLumière
Monkey King
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMnz
46% · 76 games47% · 156 games
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterSmAsH
44% · 139 games55% · 75 games
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
Centaur Warrunner
Abaddon
AbaddonYadomi
41% · 61 game59% · 96 games
Shadow DemonGenek
Shadow Demon
Lion
Lionsl4d1n-
53% · 130 games48% · 35 games
Ancient ApparitionMjz
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed41:20
Invaders 39%Thunder Awaken 61%
The model gave 61% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Invaders in 44:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMnz
54% · 64 games43% · 45 games
JuggernautLumière
Juggernaut
Magnus
MagnusChris Luck
40% · 151 game58% · 122 games
KunkkaDarkMago
Kunkka
Phoenix
PhoenixSmAsH
47% · 196 games48% · 240 games
DoomOscar
Doom
Clockwerk
ClockwerkYadomi
57% · 252 games46% · 86 games
HoodwinkGenek
Hoodwink
Earthshaker
Earthshakersl4d1n-
56% · 86 games52% · 256 games
Treant ProtectorMjz
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 72%
Series resultInvaders 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2