DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
REKONIXwin 2:0series probability
8%92%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
REKONIX
Tiny
inYourdreaM · 22 games
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 15 games
Phoenixoften banned
Varizh · 15 games
Kezsignature
TraVins · 14 games
Windrangeroften banned
TraVins · 14 games
Rubick
dalul · 13 games
Tundra Esports
Batridersignature
Ari · 33 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 33 games
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 30 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 29 games
Tinysignature
bzm · 29 games
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 26 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
bzm · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
525 picks · 315 bans
Phoenix
493 picks · 583 bans
Tiny
441 picks · 355 bans
Jakiro
396 picks · 299 bans
Rubick
388 picks · 211 bans
Tusk
346 picks · 311 bans
Puck
338 picks · 863 bans
Beastmaster
333 picks · 850 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 54%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total92% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:33
REKONIX 25%Tundra Esports 75%
The model gave 75% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by REKONIX in 59:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaTraVins
BeastmasterPure~
Queen of PaininYourdreaM
Timbersaw33
KunkkaFbz
Storm Spiritbzm
Hoodwinkdalul
TechiesWhitemon
EnchantressVarizh
RubickAri
Game 2prediction missed23:6
REKONIX 23%Tundra Esports 77%
The model gave 77% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by REKONIX in 30:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenTraVins
Monkey KingPure~
KunkkaFbz
Beastmaster33
PuckinYourdreaM
Void Spiritbzm
Rubickdalul
TuskAri
VenomancerVarizh
SilencerWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 92%
Series resultREKONIX 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2