DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionWDWhite Dragonsloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
White Dragons
Clockwerk
Yor · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
Yor · 1 game
Hoodwink
Hyko · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 1 game
Lion
Hyko · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
FCR · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
hFn · 1 game
Heroic
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KJ · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 7 games
Lion
Scofield · 5 games
Tiny
Scofield · 5 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
KJ · 5 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
K1 · 4 games
Alchemist
K1 · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
269 picks · 390 bans
Phoenix
261 picks · 389 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 433 bans
Tusk
219 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
217 picks · 560 bans
Dark Willow
200 picks · 98 bans
Lion
200 picks · 181 bans
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:22
White Dragons 35%Heroic 65%
The model gave 65% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 24:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlinghFn
WeaverK1
RazorFCR
Pangolier4nalog
Earth SpiritMr.Jeans
Primal BeastDavai
Nature's ProphetYor
Vengeful SpiritScofield
TuskHyko
Winter WyvernKJ
Game 2prediction correct29:30
White Dragons 35%Heroic 65%
The model gave 65% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 37:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphethFn
AlchemistK1
DawnbreakerMr.Jeans
BroodmotherDavai
DoomFCR
Kunkka4nalog
LionHyko
BatriderScofield
Vengeful SpiritYor
Winter WyvernKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 77%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2