European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Montewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Disruptor
Xakoda · 10 games
Legion Commandersignature
AfterLife · 9 games
Rubick
Panto · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Gilgir · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
AfterLife · 7 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Munkushi~ · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 6 games
Monte
Batrideroften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
EcNart · 3 games
Razoroften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
Slardaroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Infernal · 2 games
Vengeful Spirit
EcNart · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
267 picks · 387 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 433 bans
Phoenix
257 picks · 389 bans
Tusk
218 picks · 205 bans
Nature's Prophet
217 picks · 560 bans
Dark Willow
200 picks · 98 bans
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
Lion
199 picks · 178 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 30%
Hero pool strength50% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed48:57
One Move 62%Monte 38%
The model gave 62% on One Move — the game was taken by Monte in 1:11:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinySSS
LinaCrystallize
Pudgechempik
Void SpiritMoonlight
PhoenixXakoda
MarsInfernal
Skywrath Magequeezy
Centaur WarrunnerEcNart
46% · 112 games
HoodwinkQBFY
Game 2prediction missed30:43
One Move 63%Monte 37%
The model gave 63% on One Move — the game was taken by Monte in 33:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beastchempik
Void SpiritMoonlight
Keeper of the LightSSS
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Phoenixqueezy
ClinkzCrystallize
TuskXakoda
Vengeful SpiritEcNart
50% · 119 games
HoodwinkQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 72%
Series resultMonte 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2