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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hininyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
GH · 7 games
71%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
KuroKy · 7 games
29%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
rmN- · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
KuroKy · 6 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ghost · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
KuroKy · 6 games
50%

Hininy

Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
islA · 1 game
0%
Luna
Luna
islA · 1 game
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
islA · 1 game
100%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
islA · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
267 picks · 387 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 432 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
256 picks · 389 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
218 picks · 205 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
217 picks · 558 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
200 picks · 98 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
199 picks · 176 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:16
Nigma Galaxy 63%Hininy 37%
The model gave 63% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 21:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMiracle-
55% · 7 games54% · 118 games
Faceless VoidislA
Faceless Void
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSumaiL
73% · 11 games
Magnus
MagnusGhost
32% · 37 games
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritrmN-
50% · 36 games
Windranger
WindrangerKuroKy
32% · 27 games
Game 2prediction correct27:6
Nigma Galaxy 63%Hininy 37%
The model gave 63% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 14:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
47% · 45 games56% · 166 games
Templar AssassinislA
Templar Assassin
Alchemist
AlchemistMiracle-
42% · 15 games
Magnus
MagnusGhost
47% · 26 games
Enchantress
EnchantressKuroKy
53% · 54 games
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritrmN-
33% · 26 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 76%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2