DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AAdoNisloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
Vengeful Spirit
Stoic · 4 games
Rubick
Jeezy · 3 games
Tiny
Jeezy · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Nagato · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Nagato · 2 games
Clockwerk
Stoic · 2 games
AdoNis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
267 picks · 387 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 432 bans
Phoenix
256 picks · 389 bans
Tusk
218 picks · 205 bans
Nature's Prophet
217 picks · 558 bans
Dark Willow
200 picks · 98 bans
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
Lion
199 picks · 176 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% AdoNis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:15
Winter Bear 67%AdoNis 33%
The model gave 67% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 32:37.
Game 2prediction correct46:18
Winter Bear 67%AdoNis 33%
The model gave 67% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 27:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 67%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2