?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Darlengwin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Bleed Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Darleng

No games played over 6 months.

Bleed Esports

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
DJ · 6 games
83%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Taiga · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
DJ · 3 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
DuBu · 3 games
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
JaCkky · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Poloson · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
DuBu · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
267 picks · 384 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 432 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
256 picks · 389 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
218 picks · 205 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
217 picks · 553 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
200 picks · 98 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
198 picks · 176 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Darleng
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:37
Darleng 51%Bleed Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Darleng — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 41:10.
Game 2prediction correct22:29
Darleng 51%Bleed Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Darleng — the game was taken by Darleng in 1:03:49.
Game 3prediction correct26:13
Darleng 51%Bleed Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Darleng — the game was taken by Darleng in 40:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteDarleng · 51%
Series resultDarleng 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3