DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Rubick
Hishge · 7 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
Pucksignature
Ken · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Dark Willow
Hishge · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
FortuneSoul · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Ken · 3 games
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
267 picks · 384 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 432 bans
Phoenix
256 picks · 389 bans
Tusk
218 picks · 205 bans
Nature's Prophet
217 picks · 553 bans
Dark Willow
200 picks · 98 bans
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
Lion
198 picks · 176 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:26
Neon Esports 34%Aurora Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 43:17.
Game 2prediction correct12:24
Neon Esports 34%Aurora Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 36:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 66%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2