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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 17 games
76%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
86%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 13 games
85%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 13 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 13 games
77%
Lina
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 10 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 10 games
80%

Nigma Galaxy

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
GH · 7 games
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
rmN- · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
KuroKy · 6 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ghost · 6 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
KuroKy · 6 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
264 picks · 382 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
256 picks · 431 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
255 picks · 389 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
218 picks · 205 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
215 picks · 549 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
194 picks · 170 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 60%
Hero pool strength61% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:5
Team Falcons 74%Nigma Galaxy 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 22:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
45% · 137 games54% · 57 games
RazorMiracle-
Razor
Huskar
HuskarMalr1ne
69% · 17 games47% · 107 games
KunkkaGhost
Kunkka
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSkiter
47% · 85 games54% · 150 games
Monkey KingSumaiL
Monkey King
Tiny
TinyCr1t-
42% · 163 games49% · 149 games
PhoenixKuroKy
Phoenix
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
48% · 145 games64% · 84 games
IormN-
Io
Game 2prediction correct25:20
Team Falcons 76%Nigma Galaxy 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 49:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
57% · 99 games54% · 102 games
LinaMiracle-
Lina
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
52% · 66 games54% · 23 games
NecrophosSumaiL
Necrophos
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMalr1ne
50% · 55 games48% · 149 games
Centaur WarrunnerGhost
Centaur Warrunner
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
50% · 112 games43% · 124 games
LionrmN-
Lion
Tiny
TinyCr1t-
46% · 156 games51% · 90 games
Vengeful SpiritKuroKy
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 90%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2