DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Darlengloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Darleng
No games played over 6 months.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
263 picks · 378 bans
Grimstroke
255 picks · 430 bans
Phoenix
255 picks · 389 bans
Tusk
218 picks · 205 bans
Nature's Prophet
215 picks · 542 bans
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
Lion
192 picks · 169 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Darleng
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:31
Darleng 40%Aurora Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 32:06.
Game 2prediction correct5:28
Darleng 40%Aurora Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 29:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 60%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2