DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Neon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Neon Esports
Rubick
Hishge · 7 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Dark Willow
PlayHard · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
FortuneSoul · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Ken · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
JG · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
263 picks · 378 bans
Grimstroke
255 picks · 430 bans
Phoenix
255 picks · 389 bans
Tusk
218 picks · 205 bans
Nature's Prophet
215 picks · 542 bans
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
Lion
192 picks · 169 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:26
Blacklist International 70%Neon Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 22:42.
Game 2prediction missed8:25
Blacklist International 70%Neon Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 54:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 70%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2