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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Silkloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Invaderswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Silk

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Hermit · 3 games
67%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
ShakaLord · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
d1smar · 2 games
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
DaaD- · 2 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
d1smar · 2 games
100%

Invaders

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Kiri · 4 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
555k · 2 games
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
100%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
0%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
555k · 2 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemist
DaaD- · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Chris Luck · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
261 picks · 377 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
255 picks · 430 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
254 picks · 388 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
217 picks · 203 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
213 picks · 541 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
196 picks · 98 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
190 picks · 169 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Silk
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Invaders
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:20
Silk 51%Invaders 49%
The model gave 51% on Silk — the game was taken by Invaders in 18:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkDM
49% · 109 games56% · 50 games
GyrocopterMnz
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterHermit
57% · 188 games43% · 113 games
Keeper of the LightChris Luck
Keeper of the Light
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritShakaLord
51% · 104 games44% · 95 games
MagnusSmAsH
Magnus
39% · 36 games
AbaddonYadomi
Abaddon
55% · 107 games
Shadow Demonsl4d1n-
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed25:43
Silk 50%Invaders 50%
The model gave 50% on Silk — the game was taken by Invaders in 37:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordDM
52% · 54 games47% · 56 games
UrsaMnz
Ursa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerHermit
45% · 125 games43% · 42 games
Earth SpiritChris Luck
Earth Spirit
Batrider
BatriderShakaLord
54% · 126 games45% · 92 games
PhoenixSmAsH
Phoenix
64% · 47 games
Earthshakersl4d1n-
Earthshaker
49% · 68 games
Dark WillowYadomi
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteInvaders · 51%
Series resultInvaders 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2