DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Mad Kingsloss 0:2series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
WDWhite Dragonswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mad Kings
Grimstrokesignature
Gardick · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
payk · 9 games
Brewmastersignature
Vitaly · 8 games
Lionsignature
Michael · 8 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Gardick · 8 games
Underlordsignature
Oscar · 8 games
Clockwerk
Gardick · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Vitaly · 7 games
White Dragons
Clockwerk
Yor · 1 game
Hoodwink
Hyko · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
FCR · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
hFn · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
258 picks · 373 bans
Grimstroke
256 picks · 431 bans
Phoenix
256 picks · 387 bans
Tusk
215 picks · 202 bans
Nature's Prophet
213 picks · 542 bans
Muerta
202 picks · 281 bans
Dark Willow
197 picks · 98 bans
Faceless Void
188 picks · 446 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 57%
Hero pool strength61% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:32
Mad Kings 60%White Dragons 40%
The model gave 60% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by White Dragons in 36:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckParker
MedusahFn
Centaur WarrunnerFrank
TimbersawFCR
HoodwinkMichael
KunkkaMr.Jeans
Winter WyvernStingeR
LionHyko
51% · 151 game
TuskYor
Game 2prediction missed18:21
Mad Kings 63%White Dragons 37%
The model gave 63% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by White Dragons in 43:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenParker
TerrorbladehFn
MarsFrank
WindrangerFCR
PugnaStingeR
InvokerMr.Jeans
LionMichael
ClockwerkHyko
51% · 148 games
EnchantressYor
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 72%
Series resultWhite Dragons 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2