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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ex-Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 50 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 49 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 43 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 37 games
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 34 games
65%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 33 games
76%

ex-Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Thiolicor · 3 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Thiolicor · 3 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
TaiLung · 2 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Thiolicor · 2 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 2 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 2 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Yuma · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
KJ · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
521 picks · 314 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
491 picks · 582 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 353 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
399 picks · 299 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
384 picks · 209 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
349 picks · 311 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
338 picks · 858 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
334 picks · 850 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 43%
Hero pool strength64% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:12
Aurora Gaming 75%ex-Heroic 25%
The model gave 75% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 38:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNightfall
49% · 165 games50% · 113 games
AlchemistYuma
Alchemist
Doom
DoomWs
49% · 68 games50% · 186 games
Primal BeastTaiLung
Primal Beast
Windranger
WindrangerMikoto
52% · 100 games49% · 152 games
ViperBatyuk
Viper
Venomancer
VenomancerKaori
58% · 51 game39% · 24 games
ZeusKJ
Zeus
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
55% · 229 games44% · 138 games
TechiesThiolicor
Techies
Game 2prediction correct36:35
Aurora Gaming 75%ex-Heroic 25%
The model gave 75% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 53:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
49% · 161 game48% · 119 games
AlchemistYuma
Alchemist
Puck
PuckMikoto
51% · 329 games49% · 273 games
Primal BeastBatyuk
Primal Beast
Tidehunter
TidehunterWs
47% · 198 games55% · 521 game
Ember SpiritTaiLung
Ember Spirit
Warlock
WarlockKaori
48% · 228 games50% · 321 game
RubickKJ
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
50% · 407 games53% · 89 games
GrimstrokeThiolicor
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 87%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2