DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Jakiro
Fly · 33 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
Muertaoften banned
Timado · 22 games
Tiny
Hellscream · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 20 games
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 20 games
Warlock
Fly · 20 games
Puckoften banned
Abed · 19 games
Team Liquid
Tusksignature
Boxi · 38 games
Tinysignature
Boxi · 32 games
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 30 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 26 games
Hoodwinksignature
Ekki · 26 games
Kezsignature
miCKe · 25 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Boxi · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
521 picks · 314 bans
Phoenix
491 picks · 582 bans
Tiny
439 picks · 353 bans
Jakiro
399 picks · 299 bans
Rubick
384 picks · 209 bans
Tusk
349 picks · 311 bans
Puck
338 picks · 858 bans
Beastmaster
334 picks · 850 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 67%
Hero pool strength64% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total89% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:45
Virtus.pro 26%Team Liquid 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeTimado
PangolierNisha
Storm SpiritAbed
BristlebackmiCKe
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
UnderlordAce
TechiesHellscream
SilencertOfu
LichFly
RubickBoxi
Game 2prediction correct20:36
Virtus.pro 25%Team Liquid 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritAbed
BristlebackAce
KezTimado
MuertamiCKe
KunkkaSabeRLight-
PangolierNisha
TechiesHellscream
LichtOfu
Winter WyvernFly
HoodwinkBoxi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 89%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2