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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Ticklesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
DM · 13 games
54%
Io
Iosignature
Ceb · 11 games
64%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Ceb · 10 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Ceb · 10 games
60%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Yuragi · 9 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bzm · 9 games
56%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Ari · 8 games
63%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
bzm · 8 games
50%

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 23 games
74%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 18 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 17 games
82%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 14 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 12 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Dukalis · 12 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 12 games
42%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Force · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
258 picks · 373 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
256 picks · 431 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
256 picks · 385 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
215 picks · 202 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
213 picks · 542 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
202 picks · 281 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
197 picks · 98 bans
52%
Faceless Void
Faceless Void
188 picks · 445 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% Team Tickles
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:13
OG 61%Team Tickles 39%
The model gave 61% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 29:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYuragi
45% · 80 games53% · 63 games
GyrocopterUlnit
Gyrocopter
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
49% · 236 games58% · 8 games
Arc WardenLorenof
Arc Warden
Enigma
EnigmaWisper
52% · 102 games42% · 186 games
TimbersawForce
Timbersaw
Monkey King
Monkey KingAri
46% · 138 games57% · 149 games
PugnaNARMAN
Pugna
Io
IoCeb
54% · 61 game51% · 211 games
ClockwerkDukalis
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct34:17
OG 62%Team Tickles 38%
The model gave 62% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 40:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYuragi
45% · 145 games48% · 93 games
AlchemistUlnit
Alchemist
Mirana
Miranabzm
57% · 188 games52% · 108 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Magnus
MagnusWisper
51% · 156 games47% · 97 games
Queen of PainLorenof
Queen of Pain
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
39% · 63 games56% · 212 games
ClockwerkNARMAN
Clockwerk
Windranger
WindrangerCeb
46% · 109 games55% · 151 game
PugnaDukalis
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 73%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2