DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hininywin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FSFive Spiritsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hininy
Anti-Mageoften banned
islA · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
islA · 1 game
Five Spirits
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
257 picks · 374 bans
Grimstroke
256 picks · 430 bans
Phoenix
256 picks · 385 bans
Tusk
216 picks · 202 bans
Nature's Prophet
213 picks · 539 bans
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
Faceless Void
188 picks · 443 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 40%
Hero pool strength59% Five Spirits
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Five Spirits
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:6
Hininy 45%Five Spirits 55%
The model gave 55% on Five Spirits — the game was taken by Hininy in 19:58.
Game 2prediction missed39:23
Hininy 45%Five Spirits 55%
The model gave 55% on Five Spirits — the game was taken by Hininy in 26:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteFive Spirits · 55%
Series resultHininy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2