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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Invadersloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Invaders

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Kiri · 4 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
100%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemist
DaaD- · 1 game
0%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
555k · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
555k · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
PiPi · 1 game
0%

BOOM Esports

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 7 games
29%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 6 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 5 games
0%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Mjz · 5 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
xNova · 5 games
60%
Lion
Lion
BoBoKa · 4 games
25%
Luna
Luna
Pakazs · 4 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ws · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
257 picks · 374 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
256 picks · 430 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
256 picks · 385 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
216 picks · 202 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
213 picks · 539 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
52%
Faceless Void
Faceless Void
188 picks · 443 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% Invaders
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:44
Invaders 36%BOOM Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 48:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMnz
39% · 44 games55% · 83 games
SpectrePakazs
Spectre
Batrider
BatriderChris Luck
57% · 86 games53% · 161 game
TimbersawILICH-
Timbersaw
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSmAsH
45% · 16 games52% · 59 games
GyrocopterPanda
Gyrocopter
Clockwerk
ClockwerkYadomi
51% · 104 games
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsl4d1n-
40% · 53 games
Game 2prediction correct
Invaders 29%BOOM Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 71%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2