DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TWTeam wkwkwkloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Team wkwkwk
Crystal Maiden
Handsken · 4 games
Gyrocopter
Xepher · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
s4 · 3 games
Lion
Handsken · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
s4 · 3 games
Techies
Xepher · 3 games
Abaddonoften banned
Smiling Knight · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
256 picks · 371 bans
Phoenix
256 picks · 385 bans
Grimstroke
255 picks · 429 bans
Tusk
216 picks · 202 bans
Nature's Prophet
212 picks · 539 bans
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
Faceless Void
188 picks · 442 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Team wkwkwk
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:38
Entity 77%Team wkwkwk 23%
The model gave 77% on Entity — the game was taken by Team wkwkwk in 30:23.
Game 2prediction missed29:22
Entity 77%Team wkwkwk 23%
The model gave 77% on Entity — the game was taken by Team wkwkwk in 43:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 77%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2