?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 18 games
67%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 15 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 14 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
yamich · 11 games
64%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 11 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Armel · 11 games
36%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 10 games
30%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Fbz · 10 games
60%

Tundra Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Topson · 13 games
69%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 12 games
42%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 12 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Sneyking · 10 games
70%
Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 10 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 9 games
67%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Whitemon · 8 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
256 picks · 371 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
256 picks · 385 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
255 picks · 429 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
216 picks · 202 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
212 picks · 539 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
52%
Faceless Void
Faceless Void
188 picks · 442 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total69% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:39
Team Secret 43%Tundra Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoBOOM
67% · 17 games46% · 74 games
SvenPure~
Sven
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
54% · 158 games47% · 68 games
WindrangerTopson
Windranger
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetEkki
55% · 314 games47% · 165 games
Death ProphetMinD_ContRoL
Death Prophet
Lion
LionPuppey
50% · 118 games44% · 205 games
Tiny9Class
Tiny
46% · 95 games
Vengeful SpiritWhitemon
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct10:29
Team Secret 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonBOOM
40% · 26 games55% · 60 games
SvenPure~
Sven
Lifestealer
LifestealerCrystallis
43% · 52 games61% · 14 games
SniperTopson
Sniper
Snapfire
SnapfirePuppey
52% · 124 games47% · 120 games
Centaur WarrunnerMinD_ContRoL
Centaur Warrunner
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeEkki
45% · 90 games54% · 70 games
Hoodwink9Class
Hoodwink
60% · 28 games
OracleWhitemon
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 69%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2