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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hininyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Nagato · 3 games
0%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Stoic · 3 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Nagato · 2 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 2 games
0%
Tiny
Tiny
Jeezy · 2 games
50%

Hininy

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
255 picks · 369 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
255 picks · 429 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
254 picks · 384 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
216 picks · 201 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
208 picks · 538 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
52%
Faceless Void
Faceless Void
188 picks · 437 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% Hininy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:11
Winter Bear 61%Hininy 39%
The model gave 61% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 28:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetStoic
61% · 19 games42% · 25 games
Anti-MageislA
Anti-Mage
Lion
LionJeezy
50% · 6 games
Game 2prediction correct43:26
Winter Bear 57%Hininy 43%
The model gave 57% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJeezy
44% · 5 games56% · 8 games
Outworld DestroyerislA
Outworld Destroyer
Io
IoStoic
43% · 3 games
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 66%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2