DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FSFive Spiritsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Rubick
OmaR · 31 game
Naga Sirensignature
TA2000 · 18 games
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 17 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Malik · 17 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 17 games
Earthshaker
No!ob · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 13 games
Miranasignature
OmaR · 12 games
Five Spirits
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
255 picks · 369 bans
Grimstroke
255 picks · 429 bans
Phoenix
254 picks · 384 bans
Tusk
216 picks · 201 bans
Nature's Prophet
208 picks · 538 bans
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
Faceless Void
188 picks · 437 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:10
PSG Quest 94%Five Spirits 6%
The model gave 94% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 17:13.
Game 2prediction correct44:6
PSG Quest 94%Five Spirits 6%
The model gave 94% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 18:19.
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 94%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2