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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
KZ TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
DM · 12 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Ceb · 10 games
60%
Io
Iosignature
Ceb · 10 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Ceb · 9 games
56%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Yuragi · 8 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bzm · 8 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
bzm · 8 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Taiga · 7 games
43%

KZ TEAM

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 16 games
38%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 15 games
47%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 15 games
53%
Oracle
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 13 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 13 games
46%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
W1sh- · 11 games
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SsaSpartan · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
254 picks · 428 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
253 picks · 382 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
251 picks · 364 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
214 picks · 200 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
207 picks · 535 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
52%
Faceless Void
Faceless Void
186 picks · 436 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:10
OG 64%KZ TEAM 36%
The model gave 64% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 29:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYuragi
52% · 66 games45% · 21 game
MeepoSupream^
Meepo
Snapfire
Snapfirebzm
48% · 237 games56% · 38 games
Lone DruidOtaker
Lone Druid
Doom
DoomWisper
52% · 164 games53% · 143 games
BroodmotherSkyLark
Broodmother
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAri
53% · 111 games40% · 185 games
PhoenixAstral
Phoenix
Io
IoCeb
53% · 28 games51% · 219 games
TuskSsaSpartan
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed26:27
OG 65%KZ TEAM 35%
The model gave 65% on OG — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 35:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYuragi
50% · 132 games43% · 149 games
TerrorbladeOtaker
Terrorblade
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
46% · 119 games56% · 42 games
EarthshakerSupream^
Earthshaker
Magnus
MagnusWisper
52% · 139 games39% · 81 game
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
Centaur Warrunner
Chen
ChenCeb
58% · 69 games54% · 139 games
Keeper of the LightAstral
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAri
51% · 12 games56% · 60 games
Vengeful SpiritSsaSpartan
Vengeful Spirit
Game 3prediction correct27:10
OG 66%KZ TEAM 34%
The model gave 66% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 26:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerYuragi
48% · 176 games43% · 186 games
TerrorbladeOtaker
Terrorblade
Puck
Puckbzm
46% · 173 games53% · 150 games
Death ProphetSkyLark
Death Prophet
Chen
ChenCeb
65% · 85 games49% · 107 games
Dragon KnightSupream^
Dragon Knight
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWisper
52% · 150 games49% · 196 games
EnchantressSsaSpartan
Enchantress
Tiny
TinyAri
47% · 282 games51% · 227 games
TechiesAstral
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 77%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3