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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
9Pandasloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Lion
Lionsignature
xsvampire · 12 games
75%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Malik · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
mellojul · 7 games
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Malady · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Malik · 6 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 6 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Shigetsu · 6 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
mellojul · 6 games
67%

9Pandas

Doom
Doomoften banned
Antares · 23 games
57%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
RAMZES666 · 21 game
62%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 16 games
31%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 16 games
56%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 13 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 12 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 12 games
67%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
RAMZES666 · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
254 picks · 428 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
252 picks · 382 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
251 picks · 362 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
214 picks · 200 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
205 picks · 532 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
198 picks · 98 bans
52%
Faceless Void
Faceless Void
183 picks · 434 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:32
Natus Vincere 56%9Pandas 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 36:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaShigetsu
50% · 90 games48% · 44 games
SvenDarkLord^
Sven
Abaddon
AbaddonNefrit
51% · 61 game52% · 105 games
TimbersawAinkrad
Timbersaw
Tiny
Tinymellojul
54% · 208 games44% · 163 games
BatriderAlberkaaa
Batrider
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiMalady
66% · 20 games40% · 67 games
Spirit BreakerAntares
Spirit Breaker
Lion
LionZayac
50% · 114 games53% · 114 games
EnchantressSolo
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct39:23
Natus Vincere 57%9Pandas 43%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 47:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidShigetsu
56% · 163 games49% · 202 games
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
Terrorblade
Kunkka
Kunkkamellojul
51% · 117 games46% · 285 games
Nature's ProphetAntares
Nature's Prophet
Razor
RazorNefrit
50% · 64 games40% · 122 games
MarsAlberkaaa
Mars
Tiny
TinyZayac
48% · 269 games52% · 123 games
InvokerAinkrad
Invoker
Batrider
BatriderMalady
53% · 226 games52% · 107 games
Vengeful SpiritSolo
Vengeful Spirit
Game 3prediction correct33:17
Natus Vincere 55%9Pandas 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 35:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaShigetsu
40% · 97 games51% · 159 games
Queen of PainAinkrad
Queen of Pain
Primal Beast
Primal Beastmellojul
49% · 272 games63% · 158 games
Faceless VoidDarkLord^
Faceless Void
Abaddon
AbaddonNefrit
55% · 62 games52% · 181 game
MagnusAlberkaaa
Magnus
Batrider
BatriderMalady
50% · 328 games44% · 348 games
Nature's ProphetSolo
Nature's Prophet
Snapfire
SnapfireZayac
43% · 197 games53% · 110 games
Dark WillowAntares
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 59%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3