DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AAdoNisloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 7 games
Disruptorsignature
GH · 7 games
Batrideroften banned
rmN- · 6 games
Beastmastersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
Chensignature
KuroKy · 6 games
Vengeful Spirit
KuroKy · 6 games
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 5 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
GH · 5 games
AdoNis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
254 picks · 428 bans
Centaur Warrunner
251 picks · 360 bans
Phoenix
251 picks · 382 bans
Tusk
214 picks · 200 bans
Nature's Prophet
205 picks · 530 bans
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
Dark Willow
198 picks · 98 bans
Faceless Void
183 picks · 433 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:13
Nigma Galaxy 74%AdoNis 26%
The model gave 74% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 26:09.
Game 2prediction correct51:40
Nigma Galaxy 74%AdoNis 26%
The model gave 74% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 43:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 74%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2