DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
G2 Invictus Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Phoenixoften banned
y` · 9 games
Lunasignature
shiro · 7 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Pyw · 7 games
Brewmastersignature
niu · 6 games
Doomsignature
niu · 6 games
Muertasignature
pLAnet · 6 games
Spectreoften banned
shiro · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 6 games
G2 Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
254 picks · 428 bans
Centaur Warrunner
250 picks · 355 bans
Phoenix
249 picks · 380 bans
Tusk
214 picks · 200 bans
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
Nature's Prophet
204 picks · 524 bans
Dark Willow
197 picks · 98 bans
Pugna
182 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:25
LGD Gaming 59%G2 Invictus Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by G2 Invictus Gaming in 42:11.
Game 2prediction correct38:12
LGD Gaming 59%G2 Invictus Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 40:17.
Game 3prediction missed17:26
LGD Gaming 59%G2 Invictus Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by G2 Invictus Gaming in 43:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 59%
Series resultG2 Invictus Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3