DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Among Usloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Among Us
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
254 picks · 427 bans
Centaur Warrunner
250 picks · 350 bans
Phoenix
247 picks · 379 bans
Tusk
214 picks · 200 bans
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
Nature's Prophet
203 picks · 519 bans
Dark Willow
197 picks · 98 bans
Pugna
181 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Blacklist International
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:23
Blacklist International 75%Among Us 25%
The model gave 75% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Among Us in 31:56.
Game 2prediction missed23:28
Blacklist International 75%Among Us 25%
The model gave 75% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Among Us in 43:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 75%
Series resultBlacklist International 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2