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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bammysoywin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fart Studiosloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bammysoy

Tusk
Tusk
Husky · 8 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
BliNcc · 7 games
43%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Mo13ei · 5 games
20%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
BliNcc · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Moo · 4 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Sammyboy · 4 games
25%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Sammyboy · 3 games
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Moo · 3 games
33%

Fart Studios

Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Jenkins · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
50%
Zeus
Zeus
iAnnihilate · 4 games
25%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Newsham · 3 games
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 3 games
33%
Lion
Lion
Newsham · 3 games
33%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Fear · 3 games
67%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Jenkins · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
255 picks · 428 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
249 picks · 381 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
247 picks · 348 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
215 picks · 202 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
206 picks · 283 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
203 picks · 515 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
198 picks · 98 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
182 picks · 325 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Bammysoy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Bammysoy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:16
Bammysoy 62%Fart Studios 38%
The model gave 62% on Bammysoy — the game was taken by Bammysoy in 20:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMo13ei
50% · 271 game50% · 106 games
BroodmotherSkyward
Broodmother
Abaddon
AbaddonMoo
47% · 28 games41% · 79 games
DawnbreakerJenkins
Dawnbreaker
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSammyboy
54% · 131 game45% · 164 games
Spirit BreakeriAnnihilate
Spirit Breaker
Arc Warden
Arc WardenHusky
75% · 8 games51% · 90 games
LinaFear
Lina
Batrider
BatriderBliNcc
55% · 218 games48% · 217 games
TinySonic
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct38:12
Bammysoy 60%Fart Studios 40%
The model gave 60% on Bammysoy — the game was taken by Bammysoy in 29:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageSammyboy
52% · 72 games55% · 182 games
Storm SpiritiAnnihilate
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMo13ei
48% · 381 game49% · 115 games
Death ProphetJenkins
Death Prophet
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMoo
43% · 131 game48% · 179 games
BatriderFear
Batrider
Visage
VisageBliNcc
54% · 91 game51% · 37 games
SpectreSkyward
Spectre
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernHusky
50% · 19 games52% · 181 game
TinySonic
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteBammysoy · 70%
Series resultBammysoy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2