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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
sayuw · 14 games
79%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fng · 13 games
46%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 13 games
85%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 13 games
77%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Squad1x · 11 games
82%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Squad1x · 11 games
82%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Noticed · 10 games
70%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
50%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 13 games
62%
Lion
Lionsignature
so bad · 10 games
80%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Hellscream · 9 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
RodjER · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
forcemajor · 7 games
29%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
forcemajor · 7 games
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Corrupted · 6 games
67%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Malr1ne · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
256 picks · 428 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
250 picks · 382 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
247 picks · 347 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
215 picks · 203 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
206 picks · 283 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
203 picks · 513 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
198 picks · 98 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
181 picks · 325 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total75% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:26
Virtus.pro 64%Nemiga Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 40:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenKiritych
48% · 13 games45% · 23 games
Dazzlezenica
Dazzle
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSquad1x
47% · 263 games48% · 104 games
Ursav1olent-
Ursa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
51% · 146 games52% · 150 games
Pucknicky`cool
Puck
Batrider
Batridersayuw
58% · 210 games53% · 322 games
DoomHellscream
Doom
Undying
UndyingFng
48% · 224 games45% · 257 games
Tuskaik
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct30:7
Virtus.pro 65%Nemiga Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 25:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaSquad1x
52% · 56 games47% · 39 games
Anti-Magev1olent-
Anti-Mage
Windranger
WindrangerNoticed
53% · 112 games55% · 15 games
Ogre Maginicky`cool
Ogre Magi
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidKiritych
58% · 80 games41% · 158 games
Magnuszenica
Magnus
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksayuw
53% · 58 games48% · 130 games
Shadow DemonHellscream
Shadow Demon
Pugna
PugnaFng
59% · 132 games42% · 96 games
Crystal Maidenaik
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 75%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2