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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fly · 12 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
YamSun · 10 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
YamSun · 9 games
78%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 9 games
44%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Lelis · 9 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Lelis · 8 games
88%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Lelis · 7 games
57%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 7 games
86%

Shopify Rebellion

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 10 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Abed · 9 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fly · 8 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Abed · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 428 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
250 picks · 381 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
247 picks · 342 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
216 picks · 204 bans
46%
Muerta
Muerta
204 picks · 285 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
202 picks · 512 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
198 picks · 98 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
181 picks · 324 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% nouns
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total56% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:53
nouns 54%Shopify Rebellion 46%
The model gave 54% on nouns — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 48:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawGunnar
50% · 151 game48% · 50 games
RazorArteezy
Razor
Ursa
UrsaYuma
45% · 74 games49% · 248 games
DoomSabeRLight-
Doom
Puck
PuckStormstormer
50% · 137 games53% · 115 games
InvokerYopaj
Invoker
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritLelis
56% · 84 games49% · 254 games
TechiesThiolicor
Techies
Batrider
BatriderFly
50% · 221 game
Game 2prediction missed10:40
nouns 56%Shopify Rebellion 44%
The model gave 56% on nouns — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 32:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusYuma
50% · 110 games52% · 9 games
Arc WardenArteezy
Arc Warden
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStormstormer
56% · 97 games51% · 252 games
PangolierYopaj
Pangolier
Abaddon
AbaddonGunnar
43% · 24 games48% · 100 games
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
Dark Seer
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLelis
57% · 61 game43% · 96 games
LionThiolicor
Lion
Techies
TechiesFly
52% · 165 games
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 56%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2