DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoysloss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Fart Studioswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TiltedBoys
Dark Willow
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Fart Studios
Dark Willow
Newsham · 3 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 3 games
Zeus
iAnnihilate · 3 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Jenkins · 2 games
Gyrocopter
Jenkins · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
iAnnihilate · 2 games
Lone Druidoften banned
Fear · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
254 picks · 424 bans
Phoenix
244 picks · 375 bans
Centaur Warrunner
242 picks · 336 bans
Tusk
215 picks · 201 bans
Muerta
204 picks · 285 bans
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 496 bans
Dark Willow
196 picks · 98 bans
Pugna
179 picks · 321 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:9
TiltedBoys 52%Fart Studios 48%
The model gave 52% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 30:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SnapfireFrancisLee
ZeusiAnnihilate
44% · 23 games
Spirit BreakerJenkins
44% · 5 games
HuskarSkyward
45% · 29 games
LionNewsham
61% · 19 games
PudgeSonic
Game 2prediction missed29:28
TiltedBoys 53%Fart Studios 47%
The model gave 53% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 37:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetFrancisLee
LunaSkyward
42% · 102 games
Ember SpiritiAnnihilate
50% · 18 games
PudgeJenkins
46% · 24 games
TechiesNewsham
43% · 38 games
Keeper of the LightSonic
Game 3prediction missed27:64
TiltedBoys 52%Fart Studios 48%
The model gave 52% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 44:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetFrancisLee
SpectreSkyward
56% · 44 games
Storm SpiritiAnnihilate
47% · 30 games
Spirit BreakerJenkins
61% · 19 games
LionNewsham
40% · 21 game
AlchemistSonic
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 57%
Series resultFart Studios 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3