Bammysoy vs No Bounty Hunter — prediction DS2ЗК · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Bammysoywin 2:0

series probability

76%24%

probability at match start · final 2:0

No Bounty Hunterloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bammysoy

Tusk

Husky · 8 games

50%

Nature's Prophetoften banned

BliNcc · 7 games

43%

Linaoften banned

Mo13ei · 4 games

25%

Muertaoften banned

Sammyboy · 4 games

25%

Bristlebackoften banned

Moo · 3 games

33%

Centaur Warrunneroften banned

Husky · 3 games

67%

Dark Willow

BliNcc · 3 games

33%

Phoenixoften banned

BliNcc · 3 games

100%

No Bounty Hunter

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Grimstroke

257 picks · 430 bans

51%

Phoenix

246 picks · 383 bans

50%

Centaur Warrunner

243 picks · 338 bans

52%

Tusk

218 picks · 202 bans

47%

Muerta

207 picks · 291 bans

49%

Dark Willow

201 picks · 99 bans

53%

Nature's Prophet

198 picks · 497 bans

51%

Pugna

180 picks · 322 bans

57%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)62% vs 67%

Hero pool strength51% No Bounty Hunter

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total76% Bammysoy

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct51:17

Bammysoy 64%No Bounty Hunter 36%

The model gave 64% on Bammysoy — the game was taken by Bammysoy in 31:09.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo