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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TiltedBoysloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fly · 12 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
YamSun · 10 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
YamSun · 9 games
78%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 9 games
44%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Lelis · 9 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Lelis · 8 games
88%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Lelis · 7 games
57%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 7 games
86%

TiltedBoys

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
monkeys-forever · 1 game
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
100%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 435 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
249 picks · 389 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
246 picks · 339 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
220 picks · 206 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
211 picks · 299 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
204 picks · 100 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
200 picks · 501 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
184 picks · 325 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 57%
Hero pool strength58% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:7
nouns 91%TiltedBoys 9%
The model gave 91% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 22:08.
Game 2prediction correct
nouns 91%TiltedBoys 9%
The model gave 91% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 91%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2