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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
9Pandasloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
sayuw · 14 games
79%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 13 games
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 13 games
77%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Squad1x · 11 games
82%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 11 games
82%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Squad1x · 11 games
82%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Noticed · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 10 games
60%

9Pandas

Doom
Doomoften banned
Antares · 23 games
57%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
RAMZES666 · 21 game
62%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 16 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 15 games
33%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 13 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 12 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 12 games
67%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
RAMZES666 · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 435 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
248 picks · 387 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
245 picks · 335 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
218 picks · 204 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
210 picks · 298 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
204 picks · 100 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
198 picks · 499 bans
52%
Kunkka
Kunkka
182 picks · 507 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 48%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total76% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:18
Virtus.pro 66%9Pandas 34%
The model gave 66% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 35:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Omniknight
OmniknightKiritych
45% · 16 games56% · 34 games
Troll WarlordDarkLord^
Troll Warlord
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSquad1x
51% · 215 games44% · 88 games
MarsAlberkaaa
Mars
Magnus
MagnusNoticed
53% · 152 games57% · 140 games
ClockwerkAinkrad
Clockwerk
Pugna
PugnaFng
50% · 178 games50% · 354 games
RubickAntares
Rubick
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksayuw
41% · 211 games53% · 156 games
Nature's ProphetSolo
Nature's Prophet
Game 2prediction correct28:10
Virtus.pro 66%9Pandas 34%
The model gave 66% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 28:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidKiritych
49% · 145 games49% · 113 games
LunaDarkLord^
Luna
Magnus
MagnusSquad1x
49% · 127 games55% · 238 games
ClockwerkAinkrad
Clockwerk
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNoticed
53% · 297 games54% · 48 games
Lone DruidAlberkaaa
Lone Druid
Lion
Lionsayuw
54% · 100 games45% · 226 games
Nature's ProphetSolo
Nature's Prophet
Pugna
PugnaFng
51% · 141 game42% · 185 games
TerrorbladeAntares
Terrorblade
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 76%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2