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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:2
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Brightwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Lion
Lionsignature
Kaka · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Kaka · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
SumaiL · 13 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 10 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Monet · 10 games
40%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Monet · 10 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Fantasy · 9 games
100%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Xxs · 8 games
75%

Team Bright

Doom
Doomoften banned
Irving · 6 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
phoenix · 5 games
60%
Silencer
Silencer
Undyne_ · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 4 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Irving · 4 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Undyne_ · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 431 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
244 picks · 376 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
242 picks · 331 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
213 picks · 203 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
210 picks · 298 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
204 picks · 100 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
193 picks · 491 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
180 picks · 325 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total80% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:22
Team Aster 67%Team Bright 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 40:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
55% · 125 games48% · 400 games
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
Ember Spirit
Doom
Doom生死
54% · 263 games48% · 308 games
Nature's ProphetUlu
Nature's Prophet
Invoker
InvokerEcho
49% · 115 games53% · 140 games
BroodmotherIrving
Broodmother
Snapfire
SnapfireFrisk
41% · 337 games47% · 283 games
TuskRedPanda
Tusk
Batrider
BatriderFantasy
59% · 291 game
Game 2prediction missed12:26
Team Aster 68%Team Bright 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Bright in 32:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursapoyoyo
56% · 86 games50% · 130 games
LinaUlu
Lina
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightEcho
49% · 93 games52% · 90 games
KunkkaButterflyEffect
Kunkka
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner生死
51% · 125 games50% · 169 games
TidehunterIrving
Tidehunter
Snapfire
SnapfireFrisk
44% · 192 games44% · 263 games
TuskRedPanda
Tusk
Batrider
BatriderFantasy
58% · 156 games
Game 3prediction missed2:19
Team Aster 66%Team Bright 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Bright in 18:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom生死
49% · 126 games41% · 21 game
SlardarButterflyEffect
Slardar
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordpoyoyo
55% · 39 games57% · 253 games
Nature's ProphetUlu
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEcho
47% · 189 games47% · 30 games
ViperIrving
Viper
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeFrisk
48% · 76 games51% · 136 games
Crystal MaidenRedPanda
Crystal Maiden
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernFantasy
38% · 10 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 80%
Series resultTeam Bright 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3