DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionHHajimeloss 0:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hajime
No games played over 6 months.
Heroic
Vengeful Spirit
KJ · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 5 games
Lion
Scofield · 4 games
Tiny
Scofield · 4 games
Alchemist
K1 · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
K1 · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
267 picks · 438 bans
Phoenix
245 picks · 381 bans
Centaur Warrunner
241 picks · 335 bans
Muerta
217 picks · 308 bans
Tusk
214 picks · 207 bans
Dark Willow
208 picks · 101 bans
Nature's Prophet
193 picks · 497 bans
Kunkka
188 picks · 511 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Hajime
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:24
Hajime 16%Heroic 84%
The model gave 84% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 26:24.
Game 2prediction correct10:25
Hajime 16%Heroic 84%
The model gave 84% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 29:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 84%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2