DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 1:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Gorillaz-Prideloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Vengeful Spirit
KJ · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 5 games
Lion
Scofield · 4 games
Alchemist
K1 · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
K1 · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 3 games
Tiny
Scofield · 3 games
Gorillaz-Pride
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
269 picks · 444 bans
Phoenix
246 picks · 386 bans
Centaur Warrunner
242 picks · 337 bans
Muerta
221 picks · 309 bans
Tusk
215 picks · 207 bans
Dark Willow
212 picks · 101 bans
Nature's Prophet
195 picks · 498 bans
Kunkka
190 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Gorillaz-Pride
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:1
Heroic 80%Gorillaz-Pride 20%
The model gave 80% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 17:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 80%
Series resultHeroic 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1