DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 0:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:1
KKaiserwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Kaiser
Faceless Voidoften banned
Argius · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Valquiria · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Valquiria · 2 games
Muertaoften banned
d1smar · 2 games
Axe
Valquiria · 1 game
Dark Willow
d1smar · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
d1smar · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
Argius · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
269 picks · 444 bans
Phoenix
246 picks · 386 bans
Centaur Warrunner
242 picks · 337 bans
Muerta
221 picks · 309 bans
Tusk
215 picks · 207 bans
Dark Willow
212 picks · 101 bans
Nature's Prophet
195 picks · 498 bans
Kunkka
190 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:22
Hokori 71%Kaiser 29%
The model gave 71% on Hokori — the game was taken by Kaiser in 43:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 71%
Series resultKaiser 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1