DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Slardarsignature
SSS · 33 games
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 26 games
Kezsignature
Satanic · 23 games
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 22 games
Phoenixsignature
Dukalis · 21 game
Beastmastersignature
No[o]ne · 20 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 19 games
Xtreme Gaming
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 30 games
Warlock
xNova · 30 games
Hoodwinksignature
fy · 27 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 27 games
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 27 games
Tusk
fy · 26 games
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 25 games
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
518 picks · 311 bans
Phoenix
487 picks · 577 bans
Tiny
436 picks · 355 bans
Jakiro
402 picks · 302 bans
Rubick
379 picks · 205 bans
Tusk
349 picks · 307 bans
Puck
338 picks · 856 bans
Beastmaster
333 picks · 849 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% PARIVISION
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total74% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:25
PARIVISION 62%Xtreme Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 46:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingSatanic
Lone DruidAme
BeastmasterNoticed
TimbersawXxs
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
Sand KingNothingToSay
Rubick9Class
Hoodwinkfy
Winter WyvernDukalis
LichxNova
Game 2prediction correct30:15
PARIVISION 63%Xtreme Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 1:04:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinySatanic
Lone DruidAme
HuskarNo[o]ne
PuckNothingToSay
DawnbreakerNoticed
BristlebackXxs
Rubick9Class
Techiesfy
Winter WyvernDukalis
LichxNova
Game 3prediction correct29:23
PARIVISION 63%Xtreme Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 57:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaSatanic
Phantom AssassinAme
BeastmasterNoticed
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
SlardarXxs
Nyx Assassin9Class
Rubickfy
ClockwerkDukalis
PhoenixxNova
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 74%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3