BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninja Penguinsloss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TWTeam wkwkwkwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ninja Penguins
Doomoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Silencer
MiLAN · 2 games
Weaveroften banned
MiLAN · 2 games
Alchemist
Lowskill · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Meepooften banned
Copy · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Team wkwkwk
Gyrocopter
Xepher · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Handsken · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Smiling Knight · 2 games
Lion
Handsken · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
s4 · 2 games
Techies
Xepher · 2 games
Tiny
Stojkov · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Smiling Knight · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
273 picks · 449 bans
Phoenix
252 picks · 393 bans
Centaur Warrunner
244 picks · 335 bans
Muerta
227 picks · 317 bans
Tusk
218 picks · 205 bans
Dark Willow
217 picks · 103 bans
Nature's Prophet
199 picks · 497 bans
Treant Protector
195 picks · 368 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Ninja Penguins
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Ninja Penguins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:35
Ninja Penguins 56%Team wkwkwk 44%
The model gave 56% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Team wkwkwk in 49:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingLowskill
WindrangerSmiling Knight
Primal BeastCopy
Centaur Warrunners4
KunkkaFayde
Storm SpiritStojkov
GrimstrokeMiLAN
PugnaHandsken
55% · 76 games
LionXepher
Game 2prediction missed15:31
Ninja Penguins 58%Team wkwkwk 42%
The model gave 58% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Team wkwkwk in 42:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerLowskill
AbaddonSmiling Knight
Outworld DestroyerCopy
Razors4
Primal BeastFayde
InvokerStojkov
RubickMiLAN
GyrocopterXepher
54% · 150 games
Crystal MaidenHandsken
Model check result
Model favoriteNinja Penguins · 64%
Series resultTeam wkwkwk 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2