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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
PlayTimewin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
REKONIXloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 15 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kuku · 10 games
50%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Wits · 9 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 8 games
63%
Viper
Vipersignature
Armel · 8 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 7 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Wits · 7 games
43%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Gabbi · 7 games
86%

REKONIX

Tiny
Tiny
inYourdreaM · 22 games
41%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 20 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 18 games
22%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Varizh · 15 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 14 games
71%
Kez
Kezsignature
TraVins · 14 games
64%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TraVins · 14 games
36%
Rubick
Rubick
dalul · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
518 picks · 311 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
487 picks · 577 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 355 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
402 picks · 302 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
379 picks · 205 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
349 picks · 307 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
338 picks · 856 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 849 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% PlayTime
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% PlayTime
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:30
PlayTime 59%REKONIX 41%
The model gave 59% on PlayTime — the game was taken by PlayTime in 58:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyWits
42% · 419 games67% · 21 game
NecrophosTraVins
Necrophos
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDarkMago
48% · 380 games53% · 535 games
Ember SpiritinYourdreaM
Ember Spirit
Axe
AxeFrank
50% · 211 games46% · 440 games
PangolierFbz
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickScofield
47% · 228 games44% · 256 games
Muertadalul
Muerta
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeElmisho
54% · 109 games63% · 95 games
VenomancerVarizh
Venomancer
Game 2prediction correct43:17
PlayTime 62%REKONIX 38%
The model gave 62% on PlayTime — the game was taken by PlayTime in 41:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingWits
49% · 208 games44% · 249 games
TerrorbladeTraVins
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDarkMago
56% · 405 games55% · 342 games
SlardarFbz
Slardar
Doom
DoomFrank
51% · 185 games44% · 465 games
Storm SpiritinYourdreaM
Storm Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
51% · 505 games50% · 348 games
Rubickdalul
Rubick
Enchantress
EnchantressElmisho
50% · 221 game51% · 120 games
VenomancerVarizh
Venomancer
Model check result
Model favoritePlayTime · 71%
Series resultPlayTime 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2